Not so fast

According to the Washington Post, Hillary has said definitively that she will not run for president again.

“Will you ever run for president again? Yes or no,” (NBC's Ann) Curry asked.

“No,” said Clinton, according to the account by the Post’s Anne E. Kornblut.

She's danced around it before, saying that such a thought never enters her mind, or that she has plenty on her plate to worry about right now.  This time, she apparently said the word "no" straight out.

That might truly be her intention, but I wouldn't rule out another run by Hillary on the basis of that "no."  For one thing, as a former rival to the president who now serves on his team, she pretty much has to say "no."  She doesn't want to be in a position of seeming to challenge his authority while being on his team.

If I were guessing, I'd say Hillary probably won't run again.  At the end of Pres. Obama's second term, if he has one, she would be 69 years old.  That's not too old for a male candidate, but it might be too old for a female one.  (It's not right, but it's probably so.) 

Unless.  If Vice President Biden should not be on the ticket in 2012, Pres. Obama might well pick Hillary for his number two, which would then set up her up to run in 2016.  Actually holding one of the two top electoral offices might help mitigate whatever "age issue" there might be.

If Biden stays on the ticket and Pres. Obama should lose in 2012, many peoples' eyes would travel to Hillary.  The animus of the Obama base toward her, which was once significant, has probably been ameliorated somewhat through her loyal service in the campaign and in the administration. 

She continues to be a foreign policy hard-liner, however, and many of the "activists" would likely go to a so-called "peace candidate."  (We always have one, and they usually pull about 30% of the vote.  What made Obama different was that he added in the African-American vote, which usually goes to the "traditionalist.")  She would likely retain her base among women, hispanics, the elderly, and traditional Democrats.

Is it likely Hillary wouldn't run again?  Probably not.  Is it out of the question?  No way.

 

 

Comments

[Hypatia]

Obama will never pick Hillary for Veep. And from what I read, the Obamabots still hate her guts.

Pushing 70 is a little old for any candidate, I think. By the end of one term s/he's in his mid seventies, close to eighty by the end of two terms.

[John Petty]

You're probably right, but I'm not giving up.

The Obamabots are a less significant factor if you remove race from the picture. In any normal year, Hillary would have had the African-American vote. Without the AA vote, the Obamabots are the same as the Bill-Bradley-bots.

[Hypatia]

Good point.

I can't see why Biden wouldn't be on the ticket, though, unless he falls ill. Overall he is not a liability to the ticket despite his big mouth and Obama does listen seriously to what he has to say.

I think what happens in Afghanistan may make a difference to Hillary's chances, too. She is known to take a hard line, Biden the opposite.

[John Petty]

Yes, Hillary and Gates seem to be the "hard-line" faction with Biden the "dove," at least as regards Afghanistan/Iran. Hillary seems to be winning most of these arguments so far.