The ELCA will take a hit, and keep on ticking

The Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA) has about 10,000 congregations.  The key churchwide assembly vote to roster practicing homosexuals passed 55-45.  With the formation of a competing denomination opposed to those changes, those advocating for schism ought to be able to peel away a sizeable portion of those 10,000 congregations--at least 10% one would think, which would be 1000 congregations.  At least some in Lutheran Core expect that many or more.

Frankly, anything less than that would probably amount to a long-term bust.  The Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran Synod (WELS) has over 1000 congregations, and most Americans have probably never heard of them. 

So that's one thing.  Another is that the ELCA already has a number of smaller congregations that are barely viable.  If churches were run like businesses, as some say they should be, these congregations would already have been closed.  The majority of them will stay ELCA, but, even then, some parishioners will leave which will probably drop many of them below viability.  Over ten years, subtract another 1000 congregations or so, keeping in mind that most of these congregations would likely have closed eventually anyway.

All church agencies will take a financial hit, and already have.  Forty jobs have been eliminated at ELCA headquarters, and millions cut from the budget.  Local synods, some of whom need to tighten their belts anyway, will now have to do so.

You'd think this would generate a great deal of nailbiting at the local level, but I don't really see it.  Very few of the congregations I know something about are conflicted and depressed.  The vast majority of ELCA members, whatever their views, seem to have concluded that life in their parish is going to go on pretty much as before. 

In a senate campaign some years ago now, my candidate was being interviewed about the state of his campaign.  He replied that, well, he didn't really have much money, his name recognition could use a boost, the establishment was against him, et cetera.  "Yes," the reporter said, "But what's your biggest problem?"  The candidate replied, "Overconfidence on the staff."

That's where I am with the ELCA.  Yes, there are going to be some adjustments, and yes, money is going to be tight--frankly, for my congregation this is much more affected by the national economy than by the gay vote--and yes, some people are torqued.  Nevertheless, ten years from now, the ELCA will have 8000 congregations, with a higher percentage that are strong and viable than at present, and nearly all of them will be solid ELCA.

Nobody has been roiled by the gay issue more than the Episcopalians.  I've talked with half a dozen or so Episcopalians who attended their last national convention, and all of them remarked on the positive attitude at their last convention.  The unpleasantness is over, those who were going to leave have left, and the ones remaining were ready and eager to move forward.

That's where the ELCA will be in the not too distant future.  It may get kind of bumpy before we get there, but ten years from now the ELCA will still be standing strong.   

Comments

[toujoursdan]

And while the media likes to present the Episcopal Split as being 50-50, church statistics show that about 5-10% actually left.

[www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1134695567]

Some synods are already operating with minimal staff and are losing more people due to the economic crunch. How these synods will be able to do anything more than tending fires (which is about all they can do now)?

[John Petty]

I'm reminded of the story that Jesus tells about pruning the vine. Eventually, it makes the vine stronger--it's tough at the start of the process, though.

[toujoursdan]

The hardest part isn't seeing people leave. It's that these people just can't move on emotionally. They seem stuck in their outrage looking for its reason to exist.

They heap scorn on their previous denomination, hoping and openly praying for its demise. They obsess over every statement any priest or bishop makes looking for heresy in even a poorly worded phrase or something taken out of context. Every case of clergy or laity misconduct or misstatement (which is inevitable in a church of millions) proves that its doing to hell in a handbasket. They expend so much energy involved in tearing down the denomination they left instead of just moving on to something they are more compatible with.

The venom isn't just toxic for those who left. But it's toxic for those who remain behind. On Beliefnet this STILL plays out on the Episcopal board where we are 6 years out from Gene Robinson's ordination and the angries show up from time to time to heap scorn. And there is a very active website called "Stand Firm in Faith" for right-wing Episcopalians/Anglicans who have departed or are angry with the church that is dedicated to this as well: finding every speck and flaw possible to pick at.

For a bunch of mostly affluent white middle/upper class North Americans who have never been the targets of persecution or oppression the level of outrage is striking.

[John Petty]

And people say there's no such thing as homophobia.