What if Hillary were president?

This is the one-year mark of the Obama presidency and the major magazines and news agencies have had various summaries and interpretations.  My own view is that I largely agree with President Obama's policies--if a pollster asked me if I supported the president, I would answer "yes."  The problem, and it's a big one, is that the White House messaging operation has been a disaster.  How you could take a popular issue, like health care reform, and turn it into a political negative is political malpractice of the highest order. 

So I was wondering:  What if Hillary Clinton had been the Democratic nominee last year and were president now?  I have little doubt she'd have won the election.  The campaign was decided when the financial crisis struck on September 14, 2008,  After that, everyone knew the Democratic nominee was going to win.  To that point, the race had been roughly tied.  The financial crisis gave then-Sen. Obama a 7 point lead and he won by 7 points.

What would a (Hillary) Clinton presidency look like?  On foreign policy, she would have, of course, pursued many of the same priorities she now pursues as Secretary of State, such as "smart power," and womens' rights.  She seems also to take a generally multilateral approach to conflict situations, which she can get away with because she has a reputation as a "hawk"--a reputation that, based on her approach to Afghanistan, seems to be justified.

In terms of domestic policy, my view is that her positions across a wide range of issues, including health care reform, would have been substantially the same as those pursued by President Obama.  In fact, the compromise health care reform that has emerged this year--to the extent you can determine what it is--is in some ways, such as mandating universal coverage, similar to Hillary's position during the campaign.  (Some say that John Edwards' health care reform proposal pushed both Clinton and Obama to the left.)

The political strategy, however, would probably have been different.  During the campaign, she had said that health care reform would be a major project of her second year in office.  The first year would have been focused on the trademark Clinton issues--"It's the economy, stupid"--of job growth in particular, and economic growth in general. 

She probably would have supported the stimulus.  If anything, she might have made it bigger.  She likely would also have supported the bailout--which continued, keep in mind, the Bush administration policy--though with this important difference:  There would have been something in it for the middle class.  During the campaign, and after, she called for the resurrection of an FDR program, the Home Owners' Loan Corporation, that would help people stay in their homes and avoid foreclosure.

There would have been no pretense of bipartisanship in a Clinton presidency--no expectation that the clouds would part or celestial choirs would sing--which, ironically, might have actually produced some bipartisanship.  When she went to the Senate, she was hated by many GOP members precisely because she was known as a partisan Democrat and a fierce combatant.  They came to respect her though, and came to regard her as a worthy opponent, which in turn led to some actual results.

She would have governed as a Democrat, in other words.  Her main political strength would have been her appeal to the working class.  Hillary connects with Main Street, which is demonstrated well in this iconic photograph.  By going to bat for the middle class on the stimulus (and on health care reform and other issues), she would have solidified and broadened that support.

This is not to criticize President Obama, who brings his own gifts and skills to the job, and who must also bear, politically and personally, the burden of having his presidency undermined by those who want to brand him as "the Other."  Make no mistake, there would have been misogyny aplenty in the undertow of American politics if Hillary had been elected, but I don't think it would have worked to try to paint her as "not one of us."  Let us hope it doesn't work with President Obama either.

Comments

[Hypatia]

The blogosphere is determinedly avoiding mention of the Afghan war but it could yet sink the Administration, never mind what's happening on the home front.

[John Petty]

I haven't been following Afghanistan very closely of late. Do you know of any good summary articles?

[Ed]

1. "a popular issue, like health care reform" ... which polls out at about 15% as a major concern, and 40% of those people thought Barry, Harry and Nana were headed in the right direction.

2. Yes, Hillary also supported a stimulus. But so did the GOP -- they just wanted to spend the money in more productive ways than handing it to some guy with a cardboard sign on the nearest street corner. You can do that. It's compassionate, in its own narrow way. But it doesn't create jobs and it doesn't do a thing about what the guy's gonna do for lunch tomorrow.

3. "there would have been misogyny aplenty" ... PJ, give the American people more credit: They're not misogynist, they're not racists. They just don't like the way things are headed. Barry got their vote because people naively thought he'd "change" things, only to wake up 14 months later to find he'd changed them for the worse.

4. Democrats "came to regard (Hillary) as a worthy opponent, which in turn led to some actual results." But you name none. What has she ever actually accomplished? What specific programs or progress has she made as Secy of State? Bills passed in the Senate? Even the Daily Kos can't come up with more than naming a couple courthouses and scenic trails ... oh yeah, and she "congratulated the Syracuse University Orange Men's Lacrosse Team and the Le Moyne College Dolphins Men's Lacrosse Team on winning the lacrosse championships.

I'm in awe. She has almost as much public policy experience as Barry does ... going on two-and-a-half weeks now, vacations and speechifying aside.

[John Petty]

Hi again. Actually, as a veteran of the Clinton campaign in 2008 and as a person who has been around the block a few times, I can tell you that I was shocked at some of the misogyny I saw, and not just from the opposition, but from supposedly neutral sources. The mainstream media was among the worst. At the same time, I was proud that, from our side, not one time did I ever hear a racial remark made about Obama.