Everybody acts all surprised by Obama-mania, but it's not as surprising as a person might think. Going into Iowa, Obama and John Edwards had basically the same strategy. Win Iowa, and hope that that generates momentum to win New Hampshire, and maybe stretch it out long enough to win, or do well, in South Carolina and Nevada to get up a head of steam heading into super-Tuesday on February 5.
This is exactly what is happening in the case of Obama--no question he has the hot hand. Meanwhile, you have to give Edwards credit for being nimble. His original plan thwarted by Obama, he shifted his strategy on a dime, and now tries to ride Obama's coattails on the theme of "change." Edwards' immediate goal is to drive Hillary out of the race, and then become the alternative to Obama.
The traditional media has done all they can do to help both of them, faulting Hillary for being too stern in the New Hampshire debate, then faulting her for showing a flicker of a tear yesterday. Their narrative is that Hillary is the driven obsessive-compulsive who never makes a mistake or shows her true feelings. It something happens that doesn't fit that narrative, it must somehow be made to fit that narrative. The narrative itself is never called into question. She planned it all, dontcha know.
Also yesterday, two men hopped up at a Clinton rally with signs that said, "Iron my shirt." Hillary said, "Ah, the remnants of sexism, alive and well." Indeed. When John Edwards gets worked up, the media interpret this as passion and strength. When Hillary gets worked up, she's shrill and harsh. When George Bush cries in public, this is passed over as some quaint aberration of his underlying macho-ness. When Hillary does it, it's a sign of women being too emotional. ABC News headline: "Can Clinton's emotions get the best of her?" Congresswoman Shirley Chisholm once said that she faced more discrimination because of being than a woman than she ever faced for being black.
Can Hillary recover? Of course. On February 5, over 20 states will hold primaries or caucuses. Hundreds of delegates will be chosen in states large and small. Right now, Obama is winning young people and independents by large numbers, but these are hardly the only constituencies in the Democratic Party. (Independents, by definition, aren't even in the Democratic Party.)
In Iowa, Obama ran third in rural areas, among voters over age 45, and among married people. He split the "Democratic vote," i.e. those who self-identify as Democrats and not independents, with Hillary. Older voters, married people, and regular Democrats is, potentially, a very sizeable constituency. If Obama is all about bipartisanship, who speaks for the Democrats?
Nothing has been decided. 99% of the delegates are yet to be chosen. Fasten your seatbelts, everyone. It's going to be a bumpy campaign.
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