Is Obama underperforming, part two?

This question was just starting to be asked about a week ago.  (Part one.)  In light of recent polls, which show Obama's lead declining, especially in the swing states of OH, FL, and MI, and the internals of those polls, which show him underperforming among women over 40--traditionally, a strong Democratic demographic--the question is being asked more and more.

Answer:  Yes, and it's mostly his own fault.  The overseas trip, acclaimed flawless by the mainstream press and mainstream bloggers, has proven to be a mistake.  The trip to the middle east part was all right.  In fact, when al-Maliki endorsed Obama's timetable for Iraq withdrawal, that could hardly have gone better.

 

Now was not the time for a European trip, however.  We already know that Europeans favor the Democratic candidate.  This, they should know, is generally not a plus with the American electorate.  It invites the question:  Who gives a damn what they think?  You could argue that the line which really sunk Kerry was when somebody in the Bush campaign said that he "looks French," topped off by Tom Delay saying, "Good morning, or as John Kerry would say, 'Bonjour!'"

Secondly, I simply do not understand his campaign's resistance to doing everything it can to unite the Democratic Party.  He should not be trailing among middle-aged and older women.  His minions down the line should have resisted the temptation to tell their fellow Democrats to "get over it, loser."   

None of this is helped by his rather pointed refusal to consider Hillary Clinton for Vice President.  They leaked that Bill was the problem, thinking everybody would understand what they were talking about.  I don't get it.  How is having one of the most popular people in the country on your side a bad thing?  Plus, Bill Clinton is smart enough to figure out that, if Hillary is VP, the success of the administration is also her success.

The Obama campaign says that putting Hillary on the ticket would conflict with Obama's message of change.  Please.  The first woman to have a serious shot at being vice president, but she doesn't represent change?  Are you kidding?  I can't believe anybody outside of dailykos bought that one.  Besides, what with hob-nobbing around Europe, and switching positions on FISA, that "change" thing doesn't quite have the same luster it used to.

Here's what Obama should do:  It goes without saying that he should pick Hillary for Vice President.  That would unite the party and win the election.  He won't do it, though, primarily because, IMHO, her applause might be louder than his.  (Watch.  After he picks "not-Hillary," that's all the press is going to want to talk about.  He should pick her for defensive reasons, if nothing else.)

So, lacking that, when else could he do?  He should forget hanging around with big shots, potentates, and white men wearing suits.  Bernanke?  Obama shouldn't get within 500 yards of people like that.  (The campaign likes photo ops with big shots because they think it gives him stature and makes him look all serious and "presidential.")

He can start worrying about looking presidential after he's president.  In order to get there, he should spend most of his campaign day on the street with ordinary people.  Ditch the suit and talk to some regular folks.  He should have his formerly smart campaign staff figure out the Dunkin' Donuts crowd and start making a pitch in their direction.  Working class people are practical people.  They have to be.  Obama needs to show them that he cares, and will do something, about their every day concerns, like jobs and health care.

 

Comments

[Hypatia]

I don’t think the European trip was a mistake, --it’s not Obama’s fault that everyone was curious about him, after all, and he handled himself very well -- but he should have toned it down, with less press, tried to keep the brouhaha down to a reasonable level insofar as it was possible.

As for Clinton, Obama has made his own bed and he has to lie in it. Even if he wanted to he could not choose her now. His campaign and their surrogates spent a lot of time painting the Clintons as corrupt racist old-politics Antichrists, and he can’t take Antichrist on board the change train without angering his fanboys and losing face.

I do understand his concerns about Clinton overshadowing him, though. She probably would.

[gormenghast]

Excellent post - thank you. Americans are not stupid, and The Grand Tour, amassing 200,000 young Berliners at lunch time with a free concert, food and beer, partially at the expense of the American tax-payer and the resultant "lack of bounce" in the polls, proves it. Having one of his handlers quoted as saying that "number 10 looked kind of shabby" did Obama no good in England. Obama would have much better off staying home and at least trying to repair the damage done by his FISA vote and other lurches to the right.

I believe that it is way too late for him to bring older women on board with or without Hillary as VP, as Hypatia quite correctly says, Obama's surrogates and supporters have put paid to that.

[John Petty]

It's a little bit like the early situation in Iraq. When we didn't go in and clamp everything down right away, it gave resistance an opportunity.

Obama should have done whatever he could have--including sucking up--to unite the party. He didn't do it, and now there's this festering going on.

That puts the Hillary people on the wrong side of the analogy, but I hope you can see my point. :)

[gormenghast]

I do see your point - I think! Obama is supposedly, an avid blog reader, so there is no way he did not know what was going on. As the "leader" of the Democratic Party he must have known about the hate mail being sent to voters by his OWN party. His silence on the Hillary hatred by the press. That he did not nip all of this in the bud at the start of the infection is telling. I think that the "festering" is over, the infection has healed, the limb is stronger and now the heels have been firmly dug in. It's just too late for unity.

[John Petty]

You might be right. He should have done it right off the bat. If they made any effort, even now, it would help, but not as much as it would have a month ago.