Our friend, Hypatia, noted in a comment that the race in New Jersey and New York had tightened, and indeed they have. It's been a good week for McCain. While the race remains extremely tight, the state-by-state polling indicates some movement for McCain nationally, and in key states such as Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado.
Minnesota has, in recent history, been the most reliably Democratic state in the country. Even Mondale carried it. (True, it was his home state, but still.) Kerry won it in 2004, but by a very close margin. Obama had a small lead in Colorado, but this now appears tied. McCain seems to have picked up a little "energy" recently. I see more activity on the ground than before.
The financial crisis, however, is going to re-shuffle this particular deck, and whoever gains the high ground on that issue is going to have a big advantage going into the final weeks. One would think the likeliest beneficiary would be Sen. Obama. Democrats typically have an advantage on the economy. It remains to be seen, however, as to exactly how this will shake out. Obama's speech on the economy yesterday in Golden, CO has been largely well-received. I expect an uptick for Obama in the next week, but it's still anybody's ballgame.
A great many Mondale Democrats in MN were cut loose from party affiliation by Jesse Ventura, and were in any case being steadily lured toward the culture-wars message of the Republicans in the 1990s. The "east coast elitist" campaign -- which McCain has apparently decided is his only real shot at winning this year -- has made real inroads in Minnesota. The exurban development of the Twin Cities has been especially fertile ground for political change in Minnesota, reflected both in the growth of megachurch religion and in the particular brand of Republican-party-friendly politics that often seems to accompany it.
Posted by: Jody | September 17, 2008 at 06:53 PM
That's interesting Jody. Do you know Minnesota well? Say more.
Posted by: John Petty | September 17, 2008 at 09:08 PM