Today is primary day in parts of the country. The attention will be focused on senatorial primaries in three states--Arkansas, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania. The media will spin the election as ideological and anti-incumbent, which it is to a degree, but not as much as they'll say.
In Pennsylvania, it appears likely that incumbent Arlen Specter will be defeated by Joe Sestak. Sestak unleashed a devastating ad about ten days ago that focused on Specter's inelegant party switch. It reminded Pennsylvania Democrats that Arlen Specter is really a Republican, and why, exactly, should they vote for a Republican? Sestak had been trailing, but appears to have closed dramatically in the final days and now leads.
I haven't seen any polls on Arkansas, but wouldn't be surprised if challenger Bill Halter defeated incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln. She was hurt by her flip-flopping all over the place on health care, which was not artful, to say the least.
Neither of those two races seem particularly ideological to me, or even particularly anti-Washington. Neither Specter nor Lincoln are going to lose because they're incumbents.
In Kentucky, however, Rand Paul will probably defeat the GOP establishment's choice of Trey Grayson. Rand Paul is the son of Cong. Ron Paul, the Texas libertarian Republican, who is--oddly, it seems to me--the darling of the tea baggers.
The Kentucky race actually does have some ideological meaning in terms of intraparty GOP politics. If the Kentucky GOP establishment is considered too moderate--Mitch McConnell is too moderate?--then God help us all. Following upon last week's defeat of Sen. Robert Bennett in Utah, also a solid conservative, the GOP appears about ready to crash in on itself.
The media will try to portray the results as displaying a hostility to incumbents and an ideological hardening in both parties. It is not. It will be hostility to incumbents and ideological ossification in one of the parties.
In any event, none of these races has any particular meaning for the fall campaign. If Paul wins in Kentucky, the Democrats will have a slightly better chance in the fall, but will still probably lose. If anything, Sestak and Halter run stronger in the fall than either Specter or Lincoln.
Only one election pits a Republican against a Democrat. In Pennsylvania, the congressional seat of the late Cong. John Murtha is being heavily contested. It's a conservative district, and you'd expect it to go Republican. If it doesn't, the Democrats will have a right to crow.
They're crowing. A handy win.
Posted by: Hypatia | May 18, 2010 at 11:04 PM
The size of it, 10 points, was kind of surprising though.
Posted by: John Petty | May 19, 2010 at 02:29 PM