Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper is in the driver's seat for the governorship. As everyone knows by now, a plagairism scandal knocked out the strongest challenger from the GOP, Scott McIniss. Dan Maes wound up winning the GOP primary, whereupon perennial candidate, Tom Tancredo, jumped into the race on the American Constitution Party (ACP) ticket.
Tancredo is polling in the mid-30's, Dan Maes in the high-teens. Hickenlooper is in the mid-40's. The only scenario whereby Hickenlooper might possibly be threatened is if Maes dropped out of the race entirely and the bulk of his support went to Tancredo. Neither possibility is likely.
Buck claims to be leading Michael Bennet for the Senate seat, but nobody I've talked to believes the poll showing an 8-point lead for Buck is accurate. He might be leading, but not by that much. The Bennet campaign is making hay of Buck's rigid view against women's health freedom. GOP men may be staunch for Buck, but GOP women are not.
Cong. Betsy Markey (D-CO) would seem to be in some difficulty in the fourth district. CD-4 is strongly Republican. Markey won two years ago because the national GOP was unpopular, and Republicans just couldn't take one more round of trying to defend Marilyn Musgrave.
Word is Markey is holding her own. Plus, Tancredo is giving her back-handed boost. He's encouraging people to vote the straight American Constitution Party ticket, which helps Markey by drawing votes away from her GOP opponent and toward the ACP candidate.
John Salazar (D-CO) is feeling some heat in CD-3, but has a good relationship with his district and is known for constituent service. I'd be shocked if Salazar got beat, and I don't think he will. Likewise Ed Perlmutter in CD-7. Nobody works harder than Perlmutter. CD-7 has about equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats, but tends to vote Democratic.
UPDATE: Michael Bennet is up by one, 46-45, in the latest poll from Public Policy Polling. Not surprisingly, Buck is having trouble with moderates. Bennet leads among moderates by 24 points.
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