President Obama is enjoying a modest uptick in his polls. Contrary to the impression one might have gained from the national media, he was never unpopular to begin with. Even when he was approaching the low 40's in his approval rating, he was still the second most popular politician in the country.
Yet, the beltway pundits kept insisting that the country was up in arms against him. By comparison, as George W. Bush fell into the 20's--the 20's--David Broder said he was poised for a comeback.
Part of the "Obama bump" is probably related to his response to the Tucson shootings and the "rally around" effect of a national tragedy. Another piece, I suspect, is that, as people saw the increasing prominence of the opposition, they decided that Obama didn't look so bad.
Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the top three contenders in 2012 are said to be Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney, with 21%, 19%, and 17%, respectively, in this recent poll. Gingrich was far back at 9%. NJ Gov. Chris Christie scored a surprising--to me, at least--8%.
According to the poll, Huckabee and Palin split the conservative vote, while Romney runs well with college-educated, high income Republicans. Huckabee and Palin split the baptists, in other words, while Romney wins the country club.
Personally, I don't think Palin is running. I give her credit for running a deft media strategy, but that strategy seems more oriented toward the maintenance of celebrity than running for president. Plus, the establishment of the GOP has been biting back at her the past few months and it appears to be having some effect. Her numbers are all down.
You wonder how Romney can win the nomination when the GOP seems pretty much united against Obama's health care reform, and that reform is quite often compared with the one Mitt Romney signed into law when he was governor of Massachusetts.
There's always the possibility that a lesser-tier candidate makes a break-through--Thune, Gingrich, Christie, Santorum, Giuliani, who knows who else--except that none of those seem very likely to do it.
That leaves Mike Huckabee. He starts strong, and, as Palin's star dims, as it will one way or another, he's likely to be the beneficiary. Huckabee has quite a bit of upside potential--more than Romney. Of the top three, in my humble opinion, Huckabee would have a decided edge.
In the general, he'd carry the south, the plains states, and most of the inter-mountain west. Obama would carry the northeast and the west coast. That would leave the midwest and upper midwest as the battlegrounds--same as always, in other words.
Lots can happen between now and then, of course. If the economy gets better, the advantage stays with Obama. If times are unsettled, the outlook dire, then people might entertain the possibility of switching. Would they switch to Huckabee?
Obama has shot his wad on the economy, pardon the vulgarity. With the GOP controlling the House, his options are now severely limited.
He gave a good speech in Tucson. In addition,it's possible that his rock solid African American support means he will never fall below a certain point in the polls - if 15% of the population is 95% plus in your favor, that's surely going to help, although I'm no mathematician.
Obama remains fortunate in that the GOP has no candidate. Real unemployment is close to 20%. Nobody seems terribly worried about this.
Posted by: Hypatia | January 21, 2011 at 12:22 PM