The GOP is licking its lips at the prospect of taking over the Senate this fall. 21 Democrats seats are up for grabs, versus only 15 Republicans seats. Seven pink-to-red states currently have Democratic Senators, and the GOP, not surprisingly, is zeroing in on those seven: Alaska, South Dakota, Arkansas, North Carolina, Montana, West Virginia, and Louisiana. Win six out of these seven red state contests, and the GOP would gain Senate control.
Second glance, not so fast. Yes, the GOP will pick up South Dakota, West Virginia, and, probably, Montana. Democratic incumbent Mark Begich, on the other hand, seems to be holding his own in Alaska. David Pryor was once thought to be toast in Arkansas, but the latest NBC/Marist poll gave him a robust 10 point lead. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, and Kay Hagen in North Carolina are in dead heats and the election could go either way.
Meanwhile, the Democrats may pick up a Republican seat in Kentucky. Mitch McConnell looks like a loser to me, and his opponent, Alison Grimes, seems like she knows what she's doing. The polls indicate it could go either way. I think McConnell loses in Kentucky.
We go into the fall, then, with the GOP likely to flip three seats from blue to red, while the Democrats flip one from red to blue. The GOP would have to win three of four toss-up races in order to take control. This is certainly possible, but it's a long way from a slam dunk.
Other states that might come into play are Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, and Minnesota. Cory Gardner made a big splash in Colorado initially, but seems already on the defensive over issues of womens' reproductive health. Georgia has a strong Democratic candidate in Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Senate Sam Nunn, but, though the GOP will have to sweat to win it, they probably will. Bruce Braley will likely hold Iowa for the Democrats. Al Franken, narrowly elected in 2008, should have no trouble in Minnesota this year.
In Alabama, GOP Senator Jefferson Davis Sessions should win re-election easily.
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